College football Week 8

We are now 8 weeks into the college football season. It seems like the season just started. The playoff picture looks a little clearer. Alabama and Clemson are head and shoulders better than anyone else in college football this year.

That crashing sound you heard yesterday was Ohio State’s playoff chances after they were destroyed by Purdue 49-20.

Don’t look now, but Chip Kelly has UCLA on a two game winning streak.

SEC dominates the rankings

Is the SEC once again claiming supremacy in the FBS? Well, my rankings this week have six of the top eight teams from the SEC. Add four more to round out the top 25. That’s 10 of the top 25!

Need a reason to love college football?

Old Dominion got a crazy win last night against Western Kentucky. Clock winds down to no time left with score tied at 34. But ODU is flagged with a roughing the passer penalty that allows Western Kentucky to attempt a 57 yard FG. They miss the kick but ODU was penalized again. This time for having 12 men on the field. WKU now tries a 52 yard FG. They miss it again but this time ODU has a player in the end zone who runs the kick back all the way to the WKU 17 yard line. So going to overtime. But wait, WKU is flagged for a grabbing a face mask. So since a game can’t end on a penalty, ODU kicks a FG to win the game.

What happened to the Alabama offense?

This years Alabama offense is averaging over 50 points per game. This is not your father’s Alabama. Hell, this isn’t the Alabama offense from 5 years ago. This offense is unstoppable as far as I can see. Dominant line. 5 star skill players. And a QB who seems to throw the perfect pass nearly every time.

 

My weekly FBS rankings are here.

My weekly FCS rankings are here.

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Crazy weekend of college football

This weekend once again showed why college football is the greatest sport there is. Upsets, comebacks, you name it. And my rankings were shaken up like a good martini.

All is right in the college football world again. Alabama is back on top after Georgia forgot to bring its defense to Baton Rouge. Clemson moves up to number 2 without playing a down. Kentucky ascends to number 3 after not playing and having lost the week before. I know, algorithms can make you scratch your head sometimes! Florida’s comeback against Vanderbilt moves them up to 4 and Notre Dame’s thrilling (NOT!) squeaker against Pitt slides them into the top 5.

I wonder if Penn State realized that losing a heartbreaker to Ohio State also meant they would lose to Michigan State as well?

Virginia Tech’s once great defense got torched again. But they somehow found a way to drive 95 yards in the last two minutes to pull a win out against UNC. Losing 9 starters on defense can even be too much for a defensive guru like Bud Foster.

Here’s my FBS rankings.

Here’s my FCS rankings.

NFL Week 5 Recap

Five weeks in. And bye weeks are in full force. Still don’t understand why they start so early in the year.

Kansas City and the LA Rams are way better than everyone else for now. But I would still take New England over Kansas City in a playoff game.

Out of my bottom 9 teams (Atlanta, Oakland, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, NY Giants, Indianapolis, SF, and Arizona), I think Dallas and New York are weakest at the QB position.

I don’t think Pittsburgh needs to panic. They are in a good position in the AFC North.

All is right in the AFC East. Always weird not seeing New England atop the division. Corrections have been made. They are probably the team to beat again.

I’ll be releasing my adjusted scoring offense and defense rankings after next week.

Here are my Week 6 Rankings.

NFL Week 4

Some thoughts from Week 4:

Patrick Mahomes


I had not seen Patrick Mahomes play until the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game. Wow! His ability to scramble and still find the receivers downfield reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, John Elway and Fran Tarkenton. We’ll see if it lasts.

Why did Carolina and Washington get a bye week after only three weeks of football? Can’t the NFL come up with a better plan? Can’t they give every team a bye between weeks 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11? It seems like the players would benefit from it in the middle of the season. But when has the NFL ever taken players’ health into concern?

The roughing the passer rule continues to be a joke. I’m thinking that by the time the 2019 season rolls around, it will be illegal to even breathe on the quarterback.

It looks like this is one of those years for Atlanta where everything goes wrong. Losing three starters on the defense will do that to you. The good news is they should get a good draft pick.

My top 5 teams

  1. LA Rams
  2. Kansas City
  3. Baltimore
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Carolina

My bottom 5 teams

  1. NY Jets
  2. NY Giants
  3. Houston
  4. Detroit
  5. Arizona

See my complete rankings here.

Most surprising team through the first quarter of the season

The Baltimore Ravens. I thought this was going to be a long year for them, but Joe Flacco has been rejuvenated and the defense is playing really well.

Most disappointing team through the first quarter of the season

This one is easy. Pittsburgh. They are in total chaos right now. Stubborn owners who refuse to pay their best weapon. Now the relationship appears to be permanently broken.

2018 MLB Regular Season Final Rankings

The regular season has finally come to an end with the Dodgers and Brewers winning their games today to win their divisions. Here’s how the playoff teams finished in my rankings:

  1. Boston
  2. Houston
  3. New York Yankees
  4. Oakland
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers
  6. Milwaukee
  7. Chicago Cubs
  8. Colorado
  9. Atlanta
  10. Cleveland (They were actually 14th in my final rankings. Weak schedule)

Even though Boston won 108 games, I would have to give the edge to Houston. They gave up only 534 runs this year while Boston allowed 647. That is a big difference.

Looking at run differential, it stacks up like this:

  1. Houston +263
  2. Boston +230
  3. Los Angeles +192
  4. New York +182
  5. Cleveland +171
  6. Oakland +140
  7. Chicago +116
  8. Atlanta +105
  9. Milwaukee +92
  10. Colorado +35

My complete rankings can be found here.

FCS Playoffs Recap and Round 2 predictions

The first round of the FCS playoffs are over. Schools with higher power ratings went 5-3. The biggest upset was #24 Montana over #6 South Dakota State 24-17. #7 Northern Iowa cruised to an easy 53-17 win over #25 Eastern Illinois.#11 Citadel squeaked by #19 Coastal Carolina 41-38. #13 William & Mary had a big scare from #61 Duquesne before finally winning 52-49. #14 Western Illinois defeated #45 Dayton 24-7. #15 Chattanooga had little trouble with #21 Fordham, winning 50-20. #28 Sam Houston State pulled off an upset in beating #16 Southern Utah 42-39. #40 Colgate beat #37 New Hampshire 27-20.

Round #2 Matchups(Based on FCS seedings, record, my ratings and rankings in parentheses):

#1 Jacksonville State (10-1, 2, 118.183) vs. Chattanooga (9-3, 11, 115.648)

#2 Illinois State (9-2, 1, 118.350) vs. Western Illinois (7-5, 14, 114.777)

#3 North Dakota State (9-2, 3, 117.664) vs. Montana (8-4, 18, 113.599)

#4 McNeese State (10-0, 7, 115.964) vs. Sam Houston State (9-3, 20, 113.060)

#5 James Madison (9-2, 13, 115.180) vs. Colgate (8-4, 38, 110.690)

#6 Portland State (9-2, 9, 115.814) vs. Northern Iowa (8-4, 6, 116.009)

#7 Richmond (8-3, 19, 113.283) vs. William & Mary (9-3, 15, 114.324)

#8 Charleston Southern (9-2, 12, 115.527) vs. The Citadel (9-3, 8, 115.956)

Using my power ratings, here are the favorites and their chance of winning (not taking into account location of game):

James Madison has a 73.8% chance of winning over Colgate

North Dakota State has a 71.8% chance of winning over Montana

Illinois State has a 69.5% chance of winning over Western Illinois

McNeese State has a 66.1% chance of winning over Sam Houston State

Jacksonville State has a 64.2% chance of winning over Chattanooga

William & Mary has a 56.0% chance of winning over Richmond

The Citadel has a 52.5% chance of winning over Charleston Southern

Northern Iowa has a 51.9% chance of winning over Portland State

 

FCS College Football Rankings

We’ve come to the end of the FCS regular season. The 24 team playoff is set. How do the playoff teams fare in my top 25? Teams in bold have qualified for the playoffs.

  1. Illinois State (9-2, 118.932, #2 seed)
  2. Jacksonville State (10-1, 118.477, #1 seed)
  3. North Dakota State (9-2, 117.991, #3 seed)
  4. Dartmouth (9-1, 117.394)
  5. Harvard (9-1, 117.359)
  6. South Dakota State (8-3, 117.078)
  7. Northern Iowa (7-4, 116.140)
  8. Portland State (9-2, 116.039, #6 seed)
  9. Charleston Southern (9-2, 115.927, #8 seed)
  10. James Madison (9-2, 115.841, #5 seed)
  11. The Citadel (8-3, 115.598)
  12. McNeese State (10-0, 115.499, #4 seed)
  13. William & Mary (8-3, 115.189)
  14. Western Illinois (6-5, 115.084)
  15. Chattanooga (8-3, 115.048)
  16. Southern Utah (8-3, 114.845)
  17. Pennsylvania (7-3, 114.272)
  18. Richmond (8-3, 113.889, #7 seed)
  19. Coastal Carolina (9-2, 113.679)
  20. Youngstown State (5-6, 113.151)
  21. Fordham (9-2, 113.056)
  22. Western Carolina (7-4, 112.991)
  23. Villanova (6-5, 112.924)
  24. Montana (7-4, 112.851)
  25. Eastern Illinois (7-4, 112.735)

Other schools making the playoffs:

28. Sam Houston State (8-3, 111.970)
37. New Hampshire (7-4, 110.919)
40. Colgate (7-4, 110.721)
45. Dayton (10-1, 110.042)
61. Duquesne (8-3, 107.729)