Crazy weekend of college football

This weekend once again showed why college football is the greatest sport there is. Upsets, comebacks, you name it. And my rankings were shaken up like a good martini.

All is right in the college football world again. Alabama is back on top after Georgia forgot to bring its defense to Baton Rouge. Clemson moves up to number 2 without playing a down. Kentucky ascends to number 3 after not playing and having lost the week before. I know, algorithms can make you scratch your head sometimes! Florida’s comeback against Vanderbilt moves them up to 4 and Notre Dame’s thrilling (NOT!) squeaker against Pitt slides them into the top 5.

I wonder if Penn State realized that losing a heartbreaker to Ohio State also meant they would lose to Michigan State as well?

Virginia Tech’s once great defense got torched again. But they somehow found a way to drive 95 yards in the last two minutes to pull a win out against UNC. Losing 9 starters on defense can even be too much for a defensive guru like Bud Foster.

Here’s my FBS rankings.

Here’s my FCS rankings.

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NFL Week 5 Recap

Five weeks in. And bye weeks are in full force. Still don’t understand why they start so early in the year.

Kansas City and the LA Rams are way better than everyone else for now. But I would still take New England over Kansas City in a playoff game.

Out of my bottom 9 teams (Atlanta, Oakland, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, NY Giants, Indianapolis, SF, and Arizona), I think Dallas and New York are weakest at the QB position.

I don’t think Pittsburgh needs to panic. They are in a good position in the AFC North.

All is right in the AFC East. Always weird not seeing New England atop the division. Corrections have been made. They are probably the team to beat again.

I’ll be releasing my adjusted scoring offense and defense rankings after next week.

Here are my Week 6 Rankings.

NFL Week 4

Some thoughts from Week 4:

Patrick Mahomes


I had not seen Patrick Mahomes play until the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game. Wow! His ability to scramble and still find the receivers downfield reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, John Elway and Fran Tarkenton. We’ll see if it lasts.

Why did Carolina and Washington get a bye week after only three weeks of football? Can’t the NFL come up with a better plan? Can’t they give every team a bye between weeks 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11? It seems like the players would benefit from it in the middle of the season. But when has the NFL ever taken players’ health into concern?

The roughing the passer rule continues to be a joke. I’m thinking that by the time the 2019 season rolls around, it will be illegal to even breathe on the quarterback.

It looks like this is one of those years for Atlanta where everything goes wrong. Losing three starters on the defense will do that to you. The good news is they should get a good draft pick.

My top 5 teams

  1. LA Rams
  2. Kansas City
  3. Baltimore
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Carolina

My bottom 5 teams

  1. NY Jets
  2. NY Giants
  3. Houston
  4. Detroit
  5. Arizona

See my complete rankings here.

Most surprising team through the first quarter of the season

The Baltimore Ravens. I thought this was going to be a long year for them, but Joe Flacco has been rejuvenated and the defense is playing really well.

Most disappointing team through the first quarter of the season

This one is easy. Pittsburgh. They are in total chaos right now. Stubborn owners who refuse to pay their best weapon. Now the relationship appears to be permanently broken.

FCS Playoffs Recap and Round 2 predictions

The first round of the FCS playoffs are over. Schools with higher power ratings went 5-3. The biggest upset was #24 Montana over #6 South Dakota State 24-17. #7 Northern Iowa cruised to an easy 53-17 win over #25 Eastern Illinois.#11 Citadel squeaked by #19 Coastal Carolina 41-38. #13 William & Mary had a big scare from #61 Duquesne before finally winning 52-49. #14 Western Illinois defeated #45 Dayton 24-7. #15 Chattanooga had little trouble with #21 Fordham, winning 50-20. #28 Sam Houston State pulled off an upset in beating #16 Southern Utah 42-39. #40 Colgate beat #37 New Hampshire 27-20.

Round #2 Matchups(Based on FCS seedings, record, my ratings and rankings in parentheses):

#1 Jacksonville State (10-1, 2, 118.183) vs. Chattanooga (9-3, 11, 115.648)

#2 Illinois State (9-2, 1, 118.350) vs. Western Illinois (7-5, 14, 114.777)

#3 North Dakota State (9-2, 3, 117.664) vs. Montana (8-4, 18, 113.599)

#4 McNeese State (10-0, 7, 115.964) vs. Sam Houston State (9-3, 20, 113.060)

#5 James Madison (9-2, 13, 115.180) vs. Colgate (8-4, 38, 110.690)

#6 Portland State (9-2, 9, 115.814) vs. Northern Iowa (8-4, 6, 116.009)

#7 Richmond (8-3, 19, 113.283) vs. William & Mary (9-3, 15, 114.324)

#8 Charleston Southern (9-2, 12, 115.527) vs. The Citadel (9-3, 8, 115.956)

Using my power ratings, here are the favorites and their chance of winning (not taking into account location of game):

James Madison has a 73.8% chance of winning over Colgate

North Dakota State has a 71.8% chance of winning over Montana

Illinois State has a 69.5% chance of winning over Western Illinois

McNeese State has a 66.1% chance of winning over Sam Houston State

Jacksonville State has a 64.2% chance of winning over Chattanooga

William & Mary has a 56.0% chance of winning over Richmond

The Citadel has a 52.5% chance of winning over Charleston Southern

Northern Iowa has a 51.9% chance of winning over Portland State

 

FCS College Football Rankings

We’ve come to the end of the FCS regular season. The 24 team playoff is set. How do the playoff teams fare in my top 25? Teams in bold have qualified for the playoffs.

  1. Illinois State (9-2, 118.932, #2 seed)
  2. Jacksonville State (10-1, 118.477, #1 seed)
  3. North Dakota State (9-2, 117.991, #3 seed)
  4. Dartmouth (9-1, 117.394)
  5. Harvard (9-1, 117.359)
  6. South Dakota State (8-3, 117.078)
  7. Northern Iowa (7-4, 116.140)
  8. Portland State (9-2, 116.039, #6 seed)
  9. Charleston Southern (9-2, 115.927, #8 seed)
  10. James Madison (9-2, 115.841, #5 seed)
  11. The Citadel (8-3, 115.598)
  12. McNeese State (10-0, 115.499, #4 seed)
  13. William & Mary (8-3, 115.189)
  14. Western Illinois (6-5, 115.084)
  15. Chattanooga (8-3, 115.048)
  16. Southern Utah (8-3, 114.845)
  17. Pennsylvania (7-3, 114.272)
  18. Richmond (8-3, 113.889, #7 seed)
  19. Coastal Carolina (9-2, 113.679)
  20. Youngstown State (5-6, 113.151)
  21. Fordham (9-2, 113.056)
  22. Western Carolina (7-4, 112.991)
  23. Villanova (6-5, 112.924)
  24. Montana (7-4, 112.851)
  25. Eastern Illinois (7-4, 112.735)

Other schools making the playoffs:

28. Sam Houston State (8-3, 111.970)
37. New Hampshire (7-4, 110.919)
40. Colgate (7-4, 110.721)
45. Dayton (10-1, 110.042)
61. Duquesne (8-3, 107.729)

FBS College Football Rankings Week 12

Another week, another shakeup. Two more teams fall from the undefeated ranks. Here’s my top 25:

  1. Alabama (10-1, 130.310)
  2. Clemson (11-0, 129.421)
  3. Oklahoma (10-1, 129.251)
  4. Iowa (11-0, 128.761)
  5. Baylor (9-1, 128.224)
  6. Notre Dame (10-1, 128.220)
  7. Oklahoma State (10-1, 127.516)
  8. Ohio State (10-1, 127.492)
  9. Florida (10-1, 127.146)
  10. Michigan (9-2, 127.083)
  11. Michigan State (10-1, 127.056)
  12. Navy (9-1, 126.758)
  13. TCU (9-2, 126.607)
  14. Ole Miss (8-3, 126.182)
  15. Northwestern (9-2, 126.157)
  16. Stanford (9-2, 125.953)
  17. North Carolina (10-1, 125.533)
  18. LSU (7-3, 125.176)
  19. Florida State (9-2, 124.882)
  20. Tennessee (7-4, 124.801)
  21. West Virginia (6-4, 124.583)
  22. Wisconsin (8-3, 124.514)
  23. Mississippi State (8-3, 124.393)
  24. Toledo (9-1, 124.392)
  25. Utah (8-3, 124.210)

You can find my complete rankings here.

There’s a new conference at the top of my conference rankings. The Big 12 sneaks past the SEC for the highest average rating.

  1. Big 12 (123.335)
  2. SEC (123.241)
  3. Big 10 (122.709)
  4. Pac-12 (121.453)
  5. ACC (121.141)
  6. AAC (118.402)
  7. MAC (115.755)
  8. Mountain West (114.411)
  9. CUSA (113.815)
  10. Sun Belt (113.764)

FBS College Football Rankings for Week 11

There’s a new number 1 team in my college rankings this week. Alabama has passed Clemson after their thumping of Mississippi State and Clemson’s struggles against Syracuse. Alabama is on a roll right now. Iowa continues to impress in my ratings and Ohio State is making its move now into 4th. Here is my top 25 for this week:

 

  1. Alabama (9-1)
  2. Clemson (10-0)
  3. Iowa (10-0)
  4. Ohio State (10-0)
  5. Notre Dame (9-1)
  6. Oklahoma (9-1)
  7. Oklahoma State (10-0)
  8. Florida (9-1)
  9. TCU (9-1)
  10. Navy (8-1)
  11. Houston (10-0)
  12. Baylor (8-1)
  13. LSU (7-2)
  14. Michigan (8-2)
  15. Mississippi (7-3)
  16. North Carolina (9-1)
  17. Wisconsin (8-2)
  18. Memphis (8-2)
  19. Michigan State (9-1)
  20. Northwestern (8-2)
  21. Stanford (8-2)
  22. Tennessee (6-4)
  23. Florida State (8-2)
  24. Utah (8-2)
  25. Arkansas (6-4)

 

You can find my entire rankings for all 759 schools here.