Crazy weekend of college football

This weekend once again showed why college football is the greatest sport there is. Upsets, comebacks, you name it. And my rankings were shaken up like a good martini.

All is right in the college football world again. Alabama is back on top after Georgia forgot to bring its defense to Baton Rouge. Clemson moves up to number 2 without playing a down. Kentucky ascends to number 3 after not playing and having lost the week before. I know, algorithms can make you scratch your head sometimes! Florida’s comeback against Vanderbilt moves them up to 4 and Notre Dame’s thrilling (NOT!) squeaker against Pitt slides them into the top 5.

I wonder if Penn State realized that losing a heartbreaker to Ohio State also meant they would lose to Michigan State as well?

Virginia Tech’s once great defense got torched again. But they somehow found a way to drive 95 yards in the last two minutes to pull a win out against UNC. Losing 9 starters on defense can even be too much for a defensive guru like Bud Foster.

Here’s my FBS rankings.

Here’s my FCS rankings.

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FCS Playoffs Recap and Round 2 predictions

The first round of the FCS playoffs are over. Schools with higher power ratings went 5-3. The biggest upset was #24 Montana over #6 South Dakota State 24-17. #7 Northern Iowa cruised to an easy 53-17 win over #25 Eastern Illinois.#11 Citadel squeaked by #19 Coastal Carolina 41-38. #13 William & Mary had a big scare from #61 Duquesne before finally winning 52-49. #14 Western Illinois defeated #45 Dayton 24-7. #15 Chattanooga had little trouble with #21 Fordham, winning 50-20. #28 Sam Houston State pulled off an upset in beating #16 Southern Utah 42-39. #40 Colgate beat #37 New Hampshire 27-20.

Round #2 Matchups(Based on FCS seedings, record, my ratings and rankings in parentheses):

#1 Jacksonville State (10-1, 2, 118.183) vs. Chattanooga (9-3, 11, 115.648)

#2 Illinois State (9-2, 1, 118.350) vs. Western Illinois (7-5, 14, 114.777)

#3 North Dakota State (9-2, 3, 117.664) vs. Montana (8-4, 18, 113.599)

#4 McNeese State (10-0, 7, 115.964) vs. Sam Houston State (9-3, 20, 113.060)

#5 James Madison (9-2, 13, 115.180) vs. Colgate (8-4, 38, 110.690)

#6 Portland State (9-2, 9, 115.814) vs. Northern Iowa (8-4, 6, 116.009)

#7 Richmond (8-3, 19, 113.283) vs. William & Mary (9-3, 15, 114.324)

#8 Charleston Southern (9-2, 12, 115.527) vs. The Citadel (9-3, 8, 115.956)

Using my power ratings, here are the favorites and their chance of winning (not taking into account location of game):

James Madison has a 73.8% chance of winning over Colgate

North Dakota State has a 71.8% chance of winning over Montana

Illinois State has a 69.5% chance of winning over Western Illinois

McNeese State has a 66.1% chance of winning over Sam Houston State

Jacksonville State has a 64.2% chance of winning over Chattanooga

William & Mary has a 56.0% chance of winning over Richmond

The Citadel has a 52.5% chance of winning over Charleston Southern

Northern Iowa has a 51.9% chance of winning over Portland State

 

FCS College Football Rankings

We’ve come to the end of the FCS regular season. The 24 team playoff is set. How do the playoff teams fare in my top 25? Teams in bold have qualified for the playoffs.

  1. Illinois State (9-2, 118.932, #2 seed)
  2. Jacksonville State (10-1, 118.477, #1 seed)
  3. North Dakota State (9-2, 117.991, #3 seed)
  4. Dartmouth (9-1, 117.394)
  5. Harvard (9-1, 117.359)
  6. South Dakota State (8-3, 117.078)
  7. Northern Iowa (7-4, 116.140)
  8. Portland State (9-2, 116.039, #6 seed)
  9. Charleston Southern (9-2, 115.927, #8 seed)
  10. James Madison (9-2, 115.841, #5 seed)
  11. The Citadel (8-3, 115.598)
  12. McNeese State (10-0, 115.499, #4 seed)
  13. William & Mary (8-3, 115.189)
  14. Western Illinois (6-5, 115.084)
  15. Chattanooga (8-3, 115.048)
  16. Southern Utah (8-3, 114.845)
  17. Pennsylvania (7-3, 114.272)
  18. Richmond (8-3, 113.889, #7 seed)
  19. Coastal Carolina (9-2, 113.679)
  20. Youngstown State (5-6, 113.151)
  21. Fordham (9-2, 113.056)
  22. Western Carolina (7-4, 112.991)
  23. Villanova (6-5, 112.924)
  24. Montana (7-4, 112.851)
  25. Eastern Illinois (7-4, 112.735)

Other schools making the playoffs:

28. Sam Houston State (8-3, 111.970)
37. New Hampshire (7-4, 110.919)
40. Colgate (7-4, 110.721)
45. Dayton (10-1, 110.042)
61. Duquesne (8-3, 107.729)

FCS College Football Rankings for Week 9

Here are my top 25 schools in the FCS division of college football for Week 9.

  1. Harvard
  2. Illinois St
  3. Dartmouth
  4. Jacksonville St
  5. Portland St
  6. South Dakota St
  7. James Madison
  8. Charleston Southern
  9. Richmond
  10. Chattanooga
  11. North Dakota St
  12. William & Mary
  13. Northern Iowa
  14. Coastal Carolina
  15. The Citadel
  16. Southern Utah
  17. North Carolina A&T
  18. McNeese St
  19. Western Illinois
  20. Youngstown St
  21. Pennsylvania
  22. Fordham
  23. Towson
  24. Princeton
  25. Eastern Washington

You can find my complete rankings for all 759 teams here.

Week 11 FCS Conference Rankings

Here are my initial rankings for the FCS conferences. The Missouri Valley Conference is #1 and it’s not even close.

Conference Rankings (Average of all teams in conference):

  1. Missouri Valley (66.77)
  2. Big South (59.45)
  3. Colonial (59.11)
  4. Big Sky (58.85)
  5. Southland (58.81)
  6. Ohio Valley (57.57)
  7. Southern (57.55)
  8. Patriot (56.25)
  9. Northeast (55.80)
  10. Ivy (53.72)
  11. Southwestern (52.55)
  12. MEAC (52.23)
  13. Pioneer (49.73)