FCS Playoffs Recap and Round 2 predictions

The first round of the FCS playoffs are over. Schools with higher power ratings went 5-3. The biggest upset was #24 Montana over #6 South Dakota State 24-17. #7 Northern Iowa cruised to an easy 53-17 win over #25 Eastern Illinois.#11 Citadel squeaked by #19 Coastal Carolina 41-38. #13 William & Mary had a big scare from #61 Duquesne before finally winning 52-49. #14 Western Illinois defeated #45 Dayton 24-7. #15 Chattanooga had little trouble with #21 Fordham, winning 50-20. #28 Sam Houston State pulled off an upset in beating #16 Southern Utah 42-39. #40 Colgate beat #37 New Hampshire 27-20.

Round #2 Matchups(Based on FCS seedings, record, my ratings and rankings in parentheses):

#1 Jacksonville State (10-1, 2, 118.183) vs. Chattanooga (9-3, 11, 115.648)

#2 Illinois State (9-2, 1, 118.350) vs. Western Illinois (7-5, 14, 114.777)

#3 North Dakota State (9-2, 3, 117.664) vs. Montana (8-4, 18, 113.599)

#4 McNeese State (10-0, 7, 115.964) vs. Sam Houston State (9-3, 20, 113.060)

#5 James Madison (9-2, 13, 115.180) vs. Colgate (8-4, 38, 110.690)

#6 Portland State (9-2, 9, 115.814) vs. Northern Iowa (8-4, 6, 116.009)

#7 Richmond (8-3, 19, 113.283) vs. William & Mary (9-3, 15, 114.324)

#8 Charleston Southern (9-2, 12, 115.527) vs. The Citadel (9-3, 8, 115.956)

Using my power ratings, here are the favorites and their chance of winning (not taking into account location of game):

James Madison has a 73.8% chance of winning over Colgate

North Dakota State has a 71.8% chance of winning over Montana

Illinois State has a 69.5% chance of winning over Western Illinois

McNeese State has a 66.1% chance of winning over Sam Houston State

Jacksonville State has a 64.2% chance of winning over Chattanooga

William & Mary has a 56.0% chance of winning over Richmond

The Citadel has a 52.5% chance of winning over Charleston Southern

Northern Iowa has a 51.9% chance of winning over Portland State

 

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FCS College Football Rankings

We’ve come to the end of the FCS regular season. The 24 team playoff is set. How do the playoff teams fare in my top 25? Teams in bold have qualified for the playoffs.

  1. Illinois State (9-2, 118.932, #2 seed)
  2. Jacksonville State (10-1, 118.477, #1 seed)
  3. North Dakota State (9-2, 117.991, #3 seed)
  4. Dartmouth (9-1, 117.394)
  5. Harvard (9-1, 117.359)
  6. South Dakota State (8-3, 117.078)
  7. Northern Iowa (7-4, 116.140)
  8. Portland State (9-2, 116.039, #6 seed)
  9. Charleston Southern (9-2, 115.927, #8 seed)
  10. James Madison (9-2, 115.841, #5 seed)
  11. The Citadel (8-3, 115.598)
  12. McNeese State (10-0, 115.499, #4 seed)
  13. William & Mary (8-3, 115.189)
  14. Western Illinois (6-5, 115.084)
  15. Chattanooga (8-3, 115.048)
  16. Southern Utah (8-3, 114.845)
  17. Pennsylvania (7-3, 114.272)
  18. Richmond (8-3, 113.889, #7 seed)
  19. Coastal Carolina (9-2, 113.679)
  20. Youngstown State (5-6, 113.151)
  21. Fordham (9-2, 113.056)
  22. Western Carolina (7-4, 112.991)
  23. Villanova (6-5, 112.924)
  24. Montana (7-4, 112.851)
  25. Eastern Illinois (7-4, 112.735)

Other schools making the playoffs:

28. Sam Houston State (8-3, 111.970)
37. New Hampshire (7-4, 110.919)
40. Colgate (7-4, 110.721)
45. Dayton (10-1, 110.042)
61. Duquesne (8-3, 107.729)

FBS College Football Rankings Week 12

Another week, another shakeup. Two more teams fall from the undefeated ranks. Here’s my top 25:

  1. Alabama (10-1, 130.310)
  2. Clemson (11-0, 129.421)
  3. Oklahoma (10-1, 129.251)
  4. Iowa (11-0, 128.761)
  5. Baylor (9-1, 128.224)
  6. Notre Dame (10-1, 128.220)
  7. Oklahoma State (10-1, 127.516)
  8. Ohio State (10-1, 127.492)
  9. Florida (10-1, 127.146)
  10. Michigan (9-2, 127.083)
  11. Michigan State (10-1, 127.056)
  12. Navy (9-1, 126.758)
  13. TCU (9-2, 126.607)
  14. Ole Miss (8-3, 126.182)
  15. Northwestern (9-2, 126.157)
  16. Stanford (9-2, 125.953)
  17. North Carolina (10-1, 125.533)
  18. LSU (7-3, 125.176)
  19. Florida State (9-2, 124.882)
  20. Tennessee (7-4, 124.801)
  21. West Virginia (6-4, 124.583)
  22. Wisconsin (8-3, 124.514)
  23. Mississippi State (8-3, 124.393)
  24. Toledo (9-1, 124.392)
  25. Utah (8-3, 124.210)

You can find my complete rankings here.

There’s a new conference at the top of my conference rankings. The Big 12 sneaks past the SEC for the highest average rating.

  1. Big 12 (123.335)
  2. SEC (123.241)
  3. Big 10 (122.709)
  4. Pac-12 (121.453)
  5. ACC (121.141)
  6. AAC (118.402)
  7. MAC (115.755)
  8. Mountain West (114.411)
  9. CUSA (113.815)
  10. Sun Belt (113.764)

Division 1 College Basketball Rankings

Here’s my latest Top 25 for Division 1 College Basketball:

  1. Kentucky
  2. Virginia
  3. Kansas
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Arizona
  6. Duke
  7. Gonzaga
  8. Villanova
  9. Louisville
  10. North Carolina
  11. Notre Dame
  12. Iowa State
  13. VCU
  14. Utah
  15. West Virginia
  16. Wichita State
  17. Northern Iowa
  18. Butler
  19. Baylor
  20. Maryland
  21. Georgetown
  22. Oklahoma
  23. Ohio State
  24. Providence
  25. SMU

My complete rankings can be found here

Week 13 FBS College Football Rankings

There is a new #1 in my rankings this week as the SEC continues to cannibalize itself. Alabama and Mississippi State swap the #1 and #2 positions this week after Alabama knocked Mississippi State from the unbeatens. Ole Miss continues to hold on to the #3 position. The Big 12’s TCU and Baylor take the #4 and #5 spots this week.

How do the two undefeated teams fare this week? Florida State continues to unimpress in my rankings, remaining in my #9 spot this week. Marshall continues to remain outside my top 25, coming in at #30 this week.

Virginia Tech slides up a few spots to #49 this week after upsetting Duke. I still have a hard time saying that, “upsetting Duke”. Virginia slides down to #62. Old Dominion comes in at #102 this week.

Week 13 Top 25:

  1. Alabama (9-1, 83.811)
  2. Mississippi State (9-1, 82.292)
  3. Ole Miss (8-2, 82.073)
  4. TCU (9-1, 81.684)
  5. Baylor (8-1, 81.317)
  6. Auburn (7-3, 80.639)
  7. Oregon (9-1, 80.348)
  8. Georgia (8-2, 80.237)
  9. Florida State (10-0, 79.443)
  10. Kansas State (7-2, 78.975)
  11. Oklahoma (7-3, 78.823)
  12. LSU (7-4, 78.681)
  13. Ohio State (9-1, 78.404)
  14. UCLA (8-2, 78.253)
  15. Michigan State (8-2, 78.023)
  16. Texas A&M (7-4, 77.900)
  17. Missouri (8-2, 77.409)
  18. Wisconsin (8-2, 77.264)
  19. West Virginia (6-4, 77.201)
  20. Arkansas (5-5, 77.195)
  21. Arizona State (8-2, 77.175)
  22. Florida (5-4, 76.495)
  23. Arizona (8-2, 76.467)
  24. Nebraska (8-2, 76.338)
  25. Utah (7-3, 76.278)

My complete rankings can be found here.

Week 11 FBS College Football Rankings

Not a lot of change in my Top 10 this week. My top 6 remain the same. Florida State drops two spots to #9. Georgia falls out of my top 10 this week. Oklahoma moves up two spots to #8 and Baylor creeps in at #10. FCS powerhouse North Dakota State climbs back into my top 25. Undefeated Marshall slips to #36. Quite a few losses from the local teams last week. Virginia Tech falls to #56. Virginia is #57. East Carolina falls to #59. Old Dominion falls to #127.

My Top 25:

  1. Mississippi St (8-0, 86.060)
  2. Auburn (7-1, 85.664)
  3. Ole Miss (7-2, 83.587)
  4. Alabama (7-1, 83.173)
  5. LSU (7-2, 82.772)
  6. TCU (7-1, 81.865)
  7. Kansas St (7-1, 81.668)
  8. Oklahoma (6-2, 80.667)
  9. Florida St (8-0, 80.586)
  10. Baylor (7-1, 79.828)
  11. Oregon (8-1, 79.608)
  12. West Virginia (6-3, 78.841)
  13. Georgia (6-2, 78.460)
  14. Michigan St (7-1, 78.430)
  15. Arizona St (7-1, 78.066)
  16. Florida (4-3, 77.843)
  17. Texas A&M (6-3, 77.643)
  18. Notre Dame (7-1, 77.600)
  19. UCLA (7-2, 77.598)
  20. Nebraska (8-1, 77.373)
  21. Clemson (6-2, 77.284)
  22. Missouri (7-2, 76.452)
  23. Wisconsin (6-2, 76.081)
  24. Ohio State (7-1, 76.078)
  25. North Dakota St (9-0, 75.888)

My complete rankings can be found here.

Week 11 NCAA Division 3 Conference Rankings

Here are my initial rankings for the NCAA Division 3 conferences. The New England Small College Athletic Conference is my highest ranked conference.

Conference Rankings (Average of all teams in conference):

  1. New England Small College (50.00)
  2. Empire 8 (48.09)
  3. Centennial (47.37)
  4. Wisconsin Intercollegiate (45.26)
  5. American Southwest (44.59)
  6. Middle Atlantic (44.47)
  7. Iowa Intercollegiate (44.19)
  8. Minnesota Intercollegiate (43.90)
  9. University Athletic (43.79)
  10. Ohio Athletic (43.56)
  11. New Jersey Athletic (43.06)
  12. Old Dominion Athletic (42.84)
  13. Liberty (41.44)
  14. USA South (40.82)
  15. Southern Athletic (40.64)
  16. North Coast (40.35)
  17. Southern Collegiate (40.20)
  18. Presidents’ Athletic (39.78)
  19. Northwest (39.51)
  20. Massachusetts State (39.31)
  21. College Conf. of Illinois & Wisconsin (38.61)
  22. New England (38.47)
  23. Southern California Intercollegiate (36.05)
  24. Midwest (35.32)
  25. Michigan Intercollegiate (35.19)
  26. Heartland Collegiate (34.54)
  27. Eastern Collegiate (32.42)
  28. Northern Athletics (30.51)
  29. Upper Midwest (26.78)