FCS Playoffs Recap and Round 2 predictions

The first round of the FCS playoffs are over. Schools with higher power ratings went 5-3. The biggest upset was #24 Montana over #6 South Dakota State 24-17. #7 Northern Iowa cruised to an easy 53-17 win over #25 Eastern Illinois.#11 Citadel squeaked by #19 Coastal Carolina 41-38. #13 William & Mary had a big scare from #61 Duquesne before finally winning 52-49. #14 Western Illinois defeated #45 Dayton 24-7. #15 Chattanooga had little trouble with #21 Fordham, winning 50-20. #28 Sam Houston State pulled off an upset in beating #16 Southern Utah 42-39. #40 Colgate beat #37 New Hampshire 27-20.

Round #2 Matchups(Based on FCS seedings, record, my ratings and rankings in parentheses):

#1 Jacksonville State (10-1, 2, 118.183) vs. Chattanooga (9-3, 11, 115.648)

#2 Illinois State (9-2, 1, 118.350) vs. Western Illinois (7-5, 14, 114.777)

#3 North Dakota State (9-2, 3, 117.664) vs. Montana (8-4, 18, 113.599)

#4 McNeese State (10-0, 7, 115.964) vs. Sam Houston State (9-3, 20, 113.060)

#5 James Madison (9-2, 13, 115.180) vs. Colgate (8-4, 38, 110.690)

#6 Portland State (9-2, 9, 115.814) vs. Northern Iowa (8-4, 6, 116.009)

#7 Richmond (8-3, 19, 113.283) vs. William & Mary (9-3, 15, 114.324)

#8 Charleston Southern (9-2, 12, 115.527) vs. The Citadel (9-3, 8, 115.956)

Using my power ratings, here are the favorites and their chance of winning (not taking into account location of game):

James Madison has a 73.8% chance of winning over Colgate

North Dakota State has a 71.8% chance of winning over Montana

Illinois State has a 69.5% chance of winning over Western Illinois

McNeese State has a 66.1% chance of winning over Sam Houston State

Jacksonville State has a 64.2% chance of winning over Chattanooga

William & Mary has a 56.0% chance of winning over Richmond

The Citadel has a 52.5% chance of winning over Charleston Southern

Northern Iowa has a 51.9% chance of winning over Portland State

 

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FCS College Football Rankings

We’ve come to the end of the FCS regular season. The 24 team playoff is set. How do the playoff teams fare in my top 25? Teams in bold have qualified for the playoffs.

  1. Illinois State (9-2, 118.932, #2 seed)
  2. Jacksonville State (10-1, 118.477, #1 seed)
  3. North Dakota State (9-2, 117.991, #3 seed)
  4. Dartmouth (9-1, 117.394)
  5. Harvard (9-1, 117.359)
  6. South Dakota State (8-3, 117.078)
  7. Northern Iowa (7-4, 116.140)
  8. Portland State (9-2, 116.039, #6 seed)
  9. Charleston Southern (9-2, 115.927, #8 seed)
  10. James Madison (9-2, 115.841, #5 seed)
  11. The Citadel (8-3, 115.598)
  12. McNeese State (10-0, 115.499, #4 seed)
  13. William & Mary (8-3, 115.189)
  14. Western Illinois (6-5, 115.084)
  15. Chattanooga (8-3, 115.048)
  16. Southern Utah (8-3, 114.845)
  17. Pennsylvania (7-3, 114.272)
  18. Richmond (8-3, 113.889, #7 seed)
  19. Coastal Carolina (9-2, 113.679)
  20. Youngstown State (5-6, 113.151)
  21. Fordham (9-2, 113.056)
  22. Western Carolina (7-4, 112.991)
  23. Villanova (6-5, 112.924)
  24. Montana (7-4, 112.851)
  25. Eastern Illinois (7-4, 112.735)

Other schools making the playoffs:

28. Sam Houston State (8-3, 111.970)
37. New Hampshire (7-4, 110.919)
40. Colgate (7-4, 110.721)
45. Dayton (10-1, 110.042)
61. Duquesne (8-3, 107.729)